Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.016796 0.019048 0.021496 0.024357 0.027611 0.031197 0.035452
2025-04-27 0.013402 0.016524 0.020218 0.024916 0.030740 0.037736 0.046798
2025-05-04 0.011655 0.015207 0.019658 0.025653 0.033540 0.043590 0.057417
2025-05-11 0.010070 0.013759 0.018600 0.025435 0.034873 0.047496 0.065745
2025-05-18 0.008945 0.012719 0.017873 0.025455 0.036374 0.051606 0.074604
2025-05-25 0.007925 0.011673 0.016979 0.025074 0.037178 0.054711 0.082231
2025-06-01 0.007293 0.011096 0.016661 0.025438 0.039025 0.059404 0.092563
2025-06-08 0.006620 0.010376 0.016040 0.025253 0.039977 0.062779 0.101136
2025-06-15 0.006255 0.010084 0.016023 0.025972 0.042360 0.068527 0.113962
2025-06-22 0.005593 0.009250 0.015075 0.025095 0.042066 0.069933 0.119752
2025-06-29 0.005125 0.008687 0.014502 0.024765 0.042615 0.072723 0.128076
2025-07-06 0.004617 0.008008 0.013674 0.023917 0.042184 0.073784 0.133435
2025-07-13 0.004437 0.007883 0.013783 0.024720 0.044743 0.080313 0.149345
2025-07-20 0.004237 0.007703 0.013781 0.025328 0.047010 0.086537 0.165353
2025-07-27 0.004075 0.007576 0.013858 0.026076 0.049590 0.093540 0.183504
2025-08-03 0.003790 0.007197 0.013440 0.025854 0.050305 0.097094 0.195263
2025-08-10 0.003565 0.006909 0.013165 0.025874 0.051478 0.101608 0.209356
2025-08-17 0.003310 0.006540 0.012704 0.025487 0.051799 0.104457 0.220284
2025-08-24 0.003166 0.006377 0.012628 0.025857 0.053678 0.110588 0.238691
2025-08-31 0.002972 0.006097 0.012294 0.025669 0.054378 0.114341 0.252326
2025-09-07 0.002889 0.006036 0.012398 0.026400 0.057081 0.122529 0.276534
2025-09-14 0.002651 0.005634 0.011767 0.025508 0.056192 0.122917 0.283166
2025-09-21 0.002486 0.005371 0.011407 0.025172 0.056492 0.125920 0.296090